[h=1]Karabell's 'Do Draft' list: Fantasy football players I love the most for 2019[/h]
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The Arizona Cardinals not only finished last in yards from scrimmage last season, but it was not even remotely close. The team gained 3,865 yards, more than 48 yards per game worse than the 31st-ranked team, the similarly awful Miami Dolphins. The Cardinals were bad. Truly bad. They averaged 14.1 points per game. The Kansas City Chiefs nearly achieved that in the first quarter of games.
Regardless, things will be <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">different this season because new coach Kliff Kingsbury and new quarterback Kyler Murray have excitingly arrived from college to save the day. I cannot admit to reaching too much for quarterbacks in any standard leagues, but this young, versatile passer with major running upside has me altering the policy a bit, as long as I can pair him up with a veteran who slips too far -- someone like Dak Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger or Russell Wilson. Quarterback is crazy deep, and I am patient, and I do like the weapons at Murray's disposal and the look of a new, up-tempo offense. The fact that he is a rookie does not bother me, because he adds so much value with his legs, offering a sky-high floor. The fact that the team could barely move the football in 2018 simply does not matter. Everything has changed.
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Running back David Johnson keeps ending up on my teams because others who focused solely on the past two seasons let him slip to the end of the first round. Yes, it has been a few seasons since Johnson was notably fantasy's most valuable player, and some worry about durability, but I see a huge workload coming in an intriguing offense. He could dominate much as he did in 2016, when he earned a million touches and made myriad big plays. The injury the following season actually means less miles on the proverbial tires, so it is not all negative.
Second-year wide receiver Christian Kirk, quick and efficient, seems poised for a breakout now that there is a mobile quarterback around who can throw downfield and make plays, and I like seeing his name in Round 10 so much that I keep choosing him. Same with veteran Larry Fitzgerald, perhaps out of the slot, perhaps not. Last season was a problem for all Cardinals; two seasons ago, Fitz was sailing past 100 receptions for the third straight season. He did not suddenly get old. Blame Josh Rosen and Sam Bradford. Rookie Andy Isabella is crazy fast and a legit deep threat, while rookie Hakeem Butler offers touchdown utility. Even veteran tight end Charles Clay could matter again.
This game is all about value, and context is key. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is awesome, and of course, I would eagerly draft him if I could, but not at the going rate of the second round. Come on. This is why he led my Do Not Draft list. Wait on quarterbacks. If Murray slides past Round 10, which is a significant wait, I am in. I am so in and would not be the least bit surprised when he sails past the likes of Drew Brees, Carson Wentz and now (especially) the hurting Andrew Luck for on-field performance. Murray is going to be special for myriad reasons, not the least of which are his legs, and he is going to take several of his teammates with him to fantasy relevance.
Sometimes we do not truly know who we are targeting until we take a closer look at our fantasy teams and see whom we keep ending up with. We mock draft at ESPN Fantasy each Thursday. I have several teams with keepers and others in which I have already drafted. Here are players I like more than their ADP, listed by position:
[h=2]Quarterback[/h]Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
In a 12-team, non-PPR mock draft on Thursday, I waited until picks 132/133 to choose Prescott and Murray, and it has been a consistent theme of mine. While I will never be the one to pick a quarterback first, or perhaps even seventh or eighth in a standard format, I now like pairing up two options with different bye weeks. Prescott, thanks to his six rushing touchdowns in each of his three NFL seasons -- we call that a trend, not an aberration -- has been a top-12 fantasy QB each time, but drafters continue to let him pass by for the likes of Tom Brady. Yes, take Brady in January/February. Nobody will argue this. But we play here with regular-season numbers. Wilson and Roethlisberger are others I can -- and do -- get late.
Meanwhile, in a shallower league or three, knowing there will be ample quarterbacks undrafted -- and flex-eligible options showing up on free agency more frequently -- and spinning for home run selections, I went with Philadelphia's Wentz a few times, as he slipped too far, and I do pay attention to potential MVP numbers. He was achieving MVP status two seasons ago, and while he might be brittle, what if he has simply been unlucky?
As for Jackson, again, sometimes it is all about the legs, and I believe he can throw well enough downfield, if the Ravens allow him this basic QB skill, and he has enough options to target. Finally, in dynasty formats, I will also seek out Buffalo's Josh Allen (the legs, people) and Washington's Dwayne Haskins late.
[h=2]Running back[/h]Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
James White, New England Patriots
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos
Darrell Henderson/Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams
In addition to Arizona's Johnson in Round 1, I like the Ohio players -- not to be confused with the Ohio Players from the 1970s -- because I see them as three-down backs with little competition. OK, so perhaps a former Chief debuts after suspension in November, but Chubb will be so good by then, it will not matter. To answer your next question, no, I do not worry about the offensive lines for the Bengals and Browns. We crave volume and opportunity, and efficiency is a plus. Meanwhile, Jones is ready to emerge, should the Green Bay coaching staff permit it. Williams plays for a dominant offense.
Then there are White and Cohen. Did you know White finished last season as a top-10 fantasy PPR running back? So why are 25 running backs besting him in ADP? The Patriots do not need to change what works. I think Sony Michel (and his bum knee) is a potential problem, but even if it is not, White will catch many passes. Rookie David Montgomery could be awesome, but Cohen still catches passes, too, and I doubt he ends up completely phased out. As for Penny and Freeman, they should have been the top options a year ago. They were high draft picks, with loads of talent. Do not forget them. Henderson is the likely Todd Gurley II handcuff, and there is little question his time will come at some point, but Brown could matter as well.
As for the real later rounds, since many of you play in deeper leagues, I find I've found a combination of veterans with potential opportunity and rookies making the most sense. For example, Pittsburgh's James Conner surprised most of us last season, but Jaylen Samuels might be just as skilled and could be this year's Conner. When in doubt, look at top offenses. What if Carlos Hyde is not the Damien Williams handcuff, but it is Darrel Williams or Darwin Thompson? Chase Edmonds is the David Johnson handcuff.
As for rookies, Alexander Mattison is next man up in Minnesota. Qadree Ollisoncould be that option in Atlanta. Myles Gaskin could easily rise to relevance in Miami, just like Ryquell Armstead in Jacksonville.
[h=2]Wide receiver[/h]Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
Donte Moncrief, Pittsburgh Steelers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Oakland Raiders newcomer Antonio Brown is an obvious one, because many a fantasy manager is scared of him because of his foot problems and the drama over his helmet. I understand why. Last season, we told you not to worry about Steelers holdout Le'Veon Bell. I predict that a month from now, most will forget why Brown slipped in drafts, but at this point, the situation is a tad concerning. So I am no longer zeroing in on him, per se, but I seem to be getting him on many teams. Do not worry about Derek Carr, either. You do not have to draft him! A.J. Green had a long run of top-10 seasons in Cincinnati despite Andy Dalton quarterbacking at an average level. Wide receivers can be awesome even if their quarterbacks are merely competent. Look at Tampa Bay: Mike Evanshas five seasons in the league, each with more than 1,000 receiving yards. Jameis Winston is neither accurate nor consistently promising, but Godwin can break 1,000 yards along with Evans.
Kirk Cousins will find Thielen and Diggs, so do not worry about them. Moore is a potential breakout option. Boyd broke out last season, and we want Green healthy, because it helps Boyd. Moncrief, Valdes-Scantling and Hardman will not be the top options for their teams, and perhaps not in the top three, but their quarterbacks pile on the numbers, so there is more opportunity than, say, Miami's options. In Kansas City, especially, we know Sammy Watkins is never playing all 16 games in a season and Tyreek Hill has had trouble off the field in the past. Few rookie wide receivers emerge as immediate stars, but Hardman and Brown are so talented.
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</article>As for even later picks, I do not look at ADP much. I think Deebo Samuel gets a legit chance in San Francisco. Russell Gage could matter in Atlanta's successful offense. Perhaps Jake Kumerow gets chances in Green Bay, or Hunter Renfrow in Oakland, Terry McLaurin in Washington or Jaron Brown in Seattle.
As for slot options, remember, these are probably PPR formats, so keep an eye on fill-ins like Adam Humphries, Jamison Crowder, Danny Amendola, Cole Beasley and Randall Cobb.
[h=2]Tight end[/h]Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
I generally wait at this position, but I have a few shares of Jared Cook in New Orleans, Austin Hooper in Atlanta and especially Walker, who missed nearly all of last season with a severe ankle injury but is fine now, and even scored a touchdown in last week's preseason game. He is going back to top-10 tight end numbers. Andrews, meanwhile, averaged 16.2 yards per reception as a rookie, and 11 yards per target. Perhaps he is not the next George Kittle, but he is a lot more like O.J. Howard than most realize. I will take a chance there, and in dynasty formats, I like Philadelphia Eagles sophomore Dallas Goedert. He could be the next Zach Ertz, as Ertz could move on after this season.
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The Arizona Cardinals not only finished last in yards from scrimmage last season, but it was not even remotely close. The team gained 3,865 yards, more than 48 yards per game worse than the 31st-ranked team, the similarly awful Miami Dolphins. The Cardinals were bad. Truly bad. They averaged 14.1 points per game. The Kansas City Chiefs nearly achieved that in the first quarter of games.
Regardless, things will be <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">different this season because new coach Kliff Kingsbury and new quarterback Kyler Murray have excitingly arrived from college to save the day. I cannot admit to reaching too much for quarterbacks in any standard leagues, but this young, versatile passer with major running upside has me altering the policy a bit, as long as I can pair him up with a veteran who slips too far -- someone like Dak Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger or Russell Wilson. Quarterback is crazy deep, and I am patient, and I do like the weapons at Murray's disposal and the look of a new, up-tempo offense. The fact that he is a rookie does not bother me, because he adds so much value with his legs, offering a sky-high floor. The fact that the team could barely move the football in 2018 simply does not matter. Everything has changed.
</offer>
Running back David Johnson keeps ending up on my teams because others who focused solely on the past two seasons let him slip to the end of the first round. Yes, it has been a few seasons since Johnson was notably fantasy's most valuable player, and some worry about durability, but I see a huge workload coming in an intriguing offense. He could dominate much as he did in 2016, when he earned a million touches and made myriad big plays. The injury the following season actually means less miles on the proverbial tires, so it is not all negative.
Second-year wide receiver Christian Kirk, quick and efficient, seems poised for a breakout now that there is a mobile quarterback around who can throw downfield and make plays, and I like seeing his name in Round 10 so much that I keep choosing him. Same with veteran Larry Fitzgerald, perhaps out of the slot, perhaps not. Last season was a problem for all Cardinals; two seasons ago, Fitz was sailing past 100 receptions for the third straight season. He did not suddenly get old. Blame Josh Rosen and Sam Bradford. Rookie Andy Isabella is crazy fast and a legit deep threat, while rookie Hakeem Butler offers touchdown utility. Even veteran tight end Charles Clay could matter again.
This game is all about value, and context is key. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is awesome, and of course, I would eagerly draft him if I could, but not at the going rate of the second round. Come on. This is why he led my Do Not Draft list. Wait on quarterbacks. If Murray slides past Round 10, which is a significant wait, I am in. I am so in and would not be the least bit surprised when he sails past the likes of Drew Brees, Carson Wentz and now (especially) the hurting Andrew Luck for on-field performance. Murray is going to be special for myriad reasons, not the least of which are his legs, and he is going to take several of his teammates with him to fantasy relevance.
Sometimes we do not truly know who we are targeting until we take a closer look at our fantasy teams and see whom we keep ending up with. We mock draft at ESPN Fantasy each Thursday. I have several teams with keepers and others in which I have already drafted. Here are players I like more than their ADP, listed by position:
[h=2]Quarterback[/h]Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
In a 12-team, non-PPR mock draft on Thursday, I waited until picks 132/133 to choose Prescott and Murray, and it has been a consistent theme of mine. While I will never be the one to pick a quarterback first, or perhaps even seventh or eighth in a standard format, I now like pairing up two options with different bye weeks. Prescott, thanks to his six rushing touchdowns in each of his three NFL seasons -- we call that a trend, not an aberration -- has been a top-12 fantasy QB each time, but drafters continue to let him pass by for the likes of Tom Brady. Yes, take Brady in January/February. Nobody will argue this. But we play here with regular-season numbers. Wilson and Roethlisberger are others I can -- and do -- get late.
Meanwhile, in a shallower league or three, knowing there will be ample quarterbacks undrafted -- and flex-eligible options showing up on free agency more frequently -- and spinning for home run selections, I went with Philadelphia's Wentz a few times, as he slipped too far, and I do pay attention to potential MVP numbers. He was achieving MVP status two seasons ago, and while he might be brittle, what if he has simply been unlucky?
As for Jackson, again, sometimes it is all about the legs, and I believe he can throw well enough downfield, if the Ravens allow him this basic QB skill, and he has enough options to target. Finally, in dynasty formats, I will also seek out Buffalo's Josh Allen (the legs, people) and Washington's Dwayne Haskins late.
[h=2]Running back[/h]Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
James White, New England Patriots
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos
Darrell Henderson/Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams
In addition to Arizona's Johnson in Round 1, I like the Ohio players -- not to be confused with the Ohio Players from the 1970s -- because I see them as three-down backs with little competition. OK, so perhaps a former Chief debuts after suspension in November, but Chubb will be so good by then, it will not matter. To answer your next question, no, I do not worry about the offensive lines for the Bengals and Browns. We crave volume and opportunity, and efficiency is a plus. Meanwhile, Jones is ready to emerge, should the Green Bay coaching staff permit it. Williams plays for a dominant offense.
Then there are White and Cohen. Did you know White finished last season as a top-10 fantasy PPR running back? So why are 25 running backs besting him in ADP? The Patriots do not need to change what works. I think Sony Michel (and his bum knee) is a potential problem, but even if it is not, White will catch many passes. Rookie David Montgomery could be awesome, but Cohen still catches passes, too, and I doubt he ends up completely phased out. As for Penny and Freeman, they should have been the top options a year ago. They were high draft picks, with loads of talent. Do not forget them. Henderson is the likely Todd Gurley II handcuff, and there is little question his time will come at some point, but Brown could matter as well.
As for the real later rounds, since many of you play in deeper leagues, I find I've found a combination of veterans with potential opportunity and rookies making the most sense. For example, Pittsburgh's James Conner surprised most of us last season, but Jaylen Samuels might be just as skilled and could be this year's Conner. When in doubt, look at top offenses. What if Carlos Hyde is not the Damien Williams handcuff, but it is Darrel Williams or Darwin Thompson? Chase Edmonds is the David Johnson handcuff.
As for rookies, Alexander Mattison is next man up in Minnesota. Qadree Ollisoncould be that option in Atlanta. Myles Gaskin could easily rise to relevance in Miami, just like Ryquell Armstead in Jacksonville.
[h=2]Wide receiver[/h]Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
Donte Moncrief, Pittsburgh Steelers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Oakland Raiders newcomer Antonio Brown is an obvious one, because many a fantasy manager is scared of him because of his foot problems and the drama over his helmet. I understand why. Last season, we told you not to worry about Steelers holdout Le'Veon Bell. I predict that a month from now, most will forget why Brown slipped in drafts, but at this point, the situation is a tad concerning. So I am no longer zeroing in on him, per se, but I seem to be getting him on many teams. Do not worry about Derek Carr, either. You do not have to draft him! A.J. Green had a long run of top-10 seasons in Cincinnati despite Andy Dalton quarterbacking at an average level. Wide receivers can be awesome even if their quarterbacks are merely competent. Look at Tampa Bay: Mike Evanshas five seasons in the league, each with more than 1,000 receiving yards. Jameis Winston is neither accurate nor consistently promising, but Godwin can break 1,000 yards along with Evans.
Kirk Cousins will find Thielen and Diggs, so do not worry about them. Moore is a potential breakout option. Boyd broke out last season, and we want Green healthy, because it helps Boyd. Moncrief, Valdes-Scantling and Hardman will not be the top options for their teams, and perhaps not in the top three, but their quarterbacks pile on the numbers, so there is more opportunity than, say, Miami's options. In Kansas City, especially, we know Sammy Watkins is never playing all 16 games in a season and Tyreek Hill has had trouble off the field in the past. Few rookie wide receivers emerge as immediate stars, but Hardman and Brown are so talented.
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</article>As for even later picks, I do not look at ADP much. I think Deebo Samuel gets a legit chance in San Francisco. Russell Gage could matter in Atlanta's successful offense. Perhaps Jake Kumerow gets chances in Green Bay, or Hunter Renfrow in Oakland, Terry McLaurin in Washington or Jaron Brown in Seattle.
As for slot options, remember, these are probably PPR formats, so keep an eye on fill-ins like Adam Humphries, Jamison Crowder, Danny Amendola, Cole Beasley and Randall Cobb.
[h=2]Tight end[/h]Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
I generally wait at this position, but I have a few shares of Jared Cook in New Orleans, Austin Hooper in Atlanta and especially Walker, who missed nearly all of last season with a severe ankle injury but is fine now, and even scored a touchdown in last week's preseason game. He is going back to top-10 tight end numbers. Andrews, meanwhile, averaged 16.2 yards per reception as a rookie, and 11 yards per target. Perhaps he is not the next George Kittle, but he is a lot more like O.J. Howard than most realize. I will take a chance there, and in dynasty formats, I like Philadelphia Eagles sophomore Dallas Goedert. He could be the next Zach Ertz, as Ertz could move on after this season.
